We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 12-4 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jordan Love
0.18 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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