We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-3 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
HOU
DAL
15
27
Offense
DAL
Defense
DAL
Called it ✓
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
no data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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