We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-4 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
IND
DAL
16
24
Offense
DAL
Defense
DAL
Called it ✓
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
5.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
5.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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