We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LA
KC
18
28
Offense
KC
Defense
LA
Called it ✓
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Keion White◄
0.2 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton◄
0.03 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
