We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 9-5 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.04 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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