We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-2 · full slate 6-8 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
WAS
PHI
16
26
Offense
PHI
Defense
PHI
Missed the winner
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington◄
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
