We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-1 · full slate 8-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
TEN
17
26
Offense
TEN
Defense
TEN
Missed the winner
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Cam Ward
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
-0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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