We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-2 · full slate 6-8 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
BUF
JAX
29
19
Offense
BUF
Defense
BUF
Missed the winner
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.05 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Elite
4.7% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Average
no data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
