We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-1 · full slate 8-7 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
MIA
BUF
17
32
Offense
BUF
Defense
BUF
Called it ✓
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
Run-heavy · under-center
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Josh Allen
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
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Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
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All 5 sports
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