We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 9-4 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
HOU
ARI
16
31
Offense
ARI
Defense
ARI
Called it ✓
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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-0.00 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither◄
0.5 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
