We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 9-5 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
-0.15 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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