We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
MIA
TB
19
31
Offense
TB
Defense
TB
Called it ✓
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.00 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
no data
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
