We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-2 · full slate 6-10 straight up
Our 4 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
HOU
BUF
17
30
Offense
BUF
Defense
BUF
Called it ✓
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson◄
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
11.0% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Geno Smith◄
-0.12 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
