We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-1 · full slate 12-4 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CIN
PIT
18
27
Offense
PIT
Defense
PIT
Missed the winner
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter
1.0 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
George Kittle
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper◄
0.6 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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