We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
DET
GB
22
34
Offense
GB
Defense
GB
Called it ✓
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce
0.49 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
5.0% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
