We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 13-3 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ATL
BUF
17
29
Offense
BUF
Defense
BUF
Called it ✓
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Josh Allen
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
7.5% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.11 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
7.5% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
