We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
WAS
DAL
19
28
Offense
DAL
Defense
DAL
Called it ✓
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Jordan Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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