We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ATL
SF
20
28
Offense
SF
Defense
SF
Called it ✓
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.13 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones◄
0.6 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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