We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 7-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
JAX
LA
19
27
Offense
LA
Defense
LA
Called it ✓
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.19 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks
1.2 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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