We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 9-6 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.15 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jordan Love
0.18 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
no data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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