We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 7-6 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CAR
ARI
17
27
Offense
ARI
Defense
CAR
Missed the winner
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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-0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
no data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
