We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 7-9 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
DAL
TB
22
31
Offense
TB
Defense
TB
Called it ✓
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Elite
3.7% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bryce Young◄
-0.03 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
no data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
George Kittle
0.53 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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