We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 7-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CAR
KC
19
29
Offense
KC
Defense
KC
Called it ✓
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.10 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Elite
4.6% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
George Kittle
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper◄
0.6 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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