We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 6-8 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
KC
15
31
Offense
KC
Defense
KC
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.10 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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