We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 11-3 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.19 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Elite
3.7% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones◄
0.6 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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