We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 9-5 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
MIA
19
29
Offense
MIA
Defense
NYJ
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
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Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
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All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
