We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-2 · full slate 10-4 straight up
Our 4 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
KC
21
31
Offense
KC
Defense
KC
Missed the winner
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.10 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
