We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 9-6 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
LA
15
31
Offense
LA
Defense
LA
Called it ✓
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.19 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average
no data
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift
0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
5.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
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Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
