We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 7-8 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CIN
PHI
18
27
Offense
PHI
Defense
PHI
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.05 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
7.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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