We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 12-4 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CAR
TB
23
31
Offense
TB
Defense
TB
Called it ✓
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
7.7% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
