We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ATL
KC
22
30
Offense
KC
Defense
KC
Called it ✓
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.10 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
11.0% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels◄
-0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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