We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-1 · full slate 8-8 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
LA
15
29
Offense
LA
Defense
LA
Missed the winner
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.19 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
