We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
SEA
21
29
Offense
SEA
Defense
SEA
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
0.19 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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