We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.19 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.
1.2 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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