We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-1 · full slate 9-5 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
LAC
19
29
Offense
LAC
Defense
LAC
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.02 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average
no data
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper◄
0.6 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
