We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 11-3 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
JAX
GB
23
32
Offense
GB
Defense
GB
Called it ✓
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jordan Love
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.18 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keion White◄
0.2 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
no data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
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Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
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All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
