We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 11-3 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
SF
ARI
27
18
Offense
SF
Defense
SF
Called it ✓
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bryce Young◄
-0.03 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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