We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 5-0 · full slate 12-3 straight up
Our 5 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CLE
NE
13
29
Offense
NE
Defense
NE
Called it ✓
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Drake Maye
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.25 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
no data
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
5.0% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
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Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
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All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
