We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 8-6 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
MIA
BUF
10
28
Offense
BUF
Defense
BUF
Called it ✓
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
Run-heavy · under-center
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Josh Allen
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
