We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 9-5 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
NE
12
29
Offense
NE
Defense
NE
Called it ✓
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Drake Maye
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.25 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average
no data
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
