We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 8-7 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NE
WAS
28
14
Offense
NE
Defense
NE
Called it ✓
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson
1.1 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
