We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 7-8 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LAC
MIA
30
16
Offense
LAC
Defense
LAC
Called it ✓
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
Run-heavy · under-center
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.13 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
no data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter
1.0 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
