We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
NE
19
28
Offense
NE
Defense
NE
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Drake Maye
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.25 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Malik Hooker◄
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
5.0% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
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Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.