We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ARI
BAL
15
26
Offense
BAL
Defense
BAL
Called it ✓
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.04 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
no data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White◄
0.2 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Elite
3.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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