We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 7-9 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Zach Allen
1.1 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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