We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 6-10 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels◄
-0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
-0.03 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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