We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-4 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
MIA
CLE
17
26
Offense
CLE
Defense
CLE
Called it ✓
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Washington◄
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
no 2025 data
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Washington◄
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
George Kittle
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper◄
0.6 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
7.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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