We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 10-4 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ARI
SF
18
29
Offense
ARI
Defense
SF
Called it ✓
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Wilson
1.1 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Elite
3.7% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels◄
-0.01 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
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Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
