We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-3 · full slate 8-5 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
MIA
IND
16
28
Offense
IND
Defense
IND
Missed the winner
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
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