We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 11-4 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CIN
SEA
21
29
Offense
SEA
Defense
SEA
Called it ✓
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.11 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Tony Pollard◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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